Did Putin favor Trump?

I can’t be the only one who has noticed that this whole Russia thing makes absolutely no sense.  Why is nobody in the media or even in political office asking some basic questions about the alleged “hacking” by the Russians? 

I don’t doubt the Russian ability to hack into e-mails and I don’t doubt they would use information to their advantage if they thought they could.  But there is the problem… I don’t see how the Trump victory is to the advantage of Putin.  We as Americans are being asked to believe this premise and I don’t buy it.

Putin is the epitome of a Machiavellian ruler.  His mastery of realpolitik is unrivaled.  He is without a moral code and operates completely in the world of the practical.  The man will use any advantage to improve the situation for Russia.  None of this is disputed.  It is why he is rightly feared by so many. 

With this being the case, let’s look at why he would want either Trump or Clinton as the leader of his biggest international rival:

Trump:  The only advantage for Putin is Trump's inexperience, but even that is of dubious value.  Yes, he is inexperienced with politics but that also makes him extremely unpredictable.  That lack of predictability makes him a frightening leader from the Russian perspective.  How will Trump respond to Russian aggression in the Ukraine?  How about the Baltics or Syria?  It is all a bit of a mystery.  Everybody has opinions and guesses but there is no track record upon which to base a decision. 

One could argue that Trump has business connections with the Russians that gives them an idea of what to expect but that is a weak predictor.  Clearly Trump’s business acumen was used to promote Trump’s businesses but how does that translate into how he would run the country?  In the case of Russia, it doesn’t mean a lot.  The only thing it means is that Trump enters office with at least a modicum of understanding about the individuals with whom he will be dealing but not much more.

Clinton:  Hillary is a completely different story.  She has a long track record upon which to formulate an opinion.  This is the woman who thought Bush did such a horrible job of dealing with Russia that she thought we needed to “reset” the relationship.  She showed up to her first meeting with the foreign minister with a plastic button that she held aloft and called the “reset button.”  It was one of the most embarrassing moments in US/Russian engagement.  She looked like a complete idiot.  If you want a chuckle, google search the video of this encounter and look at the Russian foreign minister’s reaction.

She followed up by failing at every foreign policy challenge during her tenure.  Clinton and the Obama administration were inept at recognizing what was happening in Egypt, Libya and Syria.  They didn’t understand the situation on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq.  They capitulated to Iran.  They still don’t know how to handle Chinese aggression in the South or East China seas.  They were inept at thwarting Russia in the Crimea and don’t know how to handle the Ukraine problem.  Under Clinton and Obama, Russian influence continues to grow unchecked.  Weakness, ineptitude and reliance on a misguided ideology defines US foreign policy under Clinton.  That is exactly what a man like Putin thrives upon.

But there is another reason Putin would have preferred Clinton in office.  That is his ability to blackmail her.  Remember those 33,000 missing e-mails?  Do you really think those were all about yoga classes and wedding plans?  Those e-mails have never been found and a lot of people think they exist in somebody’s server.  Is it the Russians?  It doesn’t matter.  The fact that they were ever on an unsecured server means they might have been hacked and could be released at any moment.

Think about that… let’s say Putin decides that he was unhappy with the Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.  Those were part of the old Soviet Union and hold real strategic value today.  If Putin made moves upon them, he could have placed a call to President Hillary and remind her how terrible it would be if those e-mails suddenly were to appear on Wikileaks.  He could have held that card over her whenever he needed to.  He wouldn’t even need to have them.  Just the idea that he might is all that would be needed.  He would have had an awesome weapon to allow him to continue to expand Russian influence without serious opposition from the US.

If Clinton had won, Putin would have had a weak and inept leader who was susceptible to blackmail.  With Trump, he has an inexperienced but unpredictable counterpart.  Seriously… who do you think he wanted to win?

So why isn’t anybody in the media asking about this?  Why are they just taking at face value that the Russians interfered with the intent of helping Trump?  It seems shockingly obvious that the motive seems more than a little weak.  Did they do it in hopes of just further weakening Clinton but didn’t think she would actually lose?  Or maybe they didn’t do it.  Maybe it really was just poorly secured e-mail accounts that Wikileaks managed to access.  Maybe it was a variety of hackers who were successful against the DNC and Podesta but wasn’t state sponsored.  I don’t know…

All I do know is that the narrative pushed by the Obama administration and parroted without question by the media doesn’t make any sense.  It irritates me that nobody is questioning the narrative.  Even conservatives seem paralyzed by this and are afraid to ask real questions.  

2017 Prius

2017 Prius

This blog post is a draft of a training module I am developing for my Toyota salespeople. 

Fuel Economy

Let’s start with the obvious and then what is not so obvious.  If fuel economy is your number one issue, the Prius is the obvious choice.  The combined highway and city rating is 52 MPG (the Prius II Eco is 56 but you’ll see shortly why this isn’t as big a deal as it may appear).  Nothing without a plug comes close.  So far so good?

Fuel economy ratings that are displayed on the window of any car are deceptive.  The EPA has a set of criteria that manufacturers must use to put those numbers on the window.  The problem is, the criteria doesn’t really represent what happens in the real world.  To see how bad this is, do a Google search with the terms “Ford c max fuel economy lawsuit.”  The car did much better on the treadmill than it could ever do in real life.

The other side of this is what the real world is for the 2016/17 Prius.  The previous generation Prius had a combined MPG rating of 50.  Most owners get between 46-48 and some do get 50 MPG.  Some people use a trick called “hyper-miling” and get into the upper 50’s (very dangerous, don’t try it). 

The 2016/17 is completely different.  I have seen several cars that are getting into the low 60’s for MPG.  These are not the “Eco” models.  They are the trim level 3 and 4 which have lithium-ion batteries.  The 2 Eco has lithium-ion as well but has no spare tire and is lacking a rear window wiper.  Take a look at the web site www.fuelly.com and check out the 2016 Prius.  You’ll see most owners are reporting 56+ and a large number are in the 60’s. 

Why is the real world so different than the EPA rating?  Great question.  I have some theories but they involve the word “sandbagging” and the motive involves changing regulations, CAFÉ standards and politics.  They are only theories anyway and sticking with proven facts, there is ample evidence that the 52 listed on the window is considerably lower than most people will realize.

Other savings

While fuel economy is the most obvious source of savings, it isn’t the only one.  The next biggie is the brakes.  Every time you hit the brake pedal on a Prius, you feel like the pads are grabbing the disc.  In reality, what you are feeling is mostly “regenerative braking” which is where the car is slowed by converting kinetic energy into electric energy and sent back to the batteries.  You actually generate power by hitting the brakes.  As a result, not only do you save gas, you save your brakes.  Every car and driver are different, but most owners will get in excess of 150,000 miles out of their brakes.  Have you ever driven a car that will go even half of that on a set of brakes? 

How about maintenance?  Every Toyota comes with the first 2 years or 25,000 miles of maintenance included.  Every tire rotation, oil change and multi-point inspection is covered.  You also get 3 years of roadside assistance with no mileage limit.  Beyond that, the spark plugs and coolant are long life so you’re well over 100,000 before they need attention.  There are no belts on the car at all.  The power steering and air conditioning run off electric motors and there is no alternator.  There is just very little to do on a Prius to keep it in top running condition.

What about battery life and replacement cost?  The fact is, most Prius cars never need the battery replaced.  It is rare to see one and the ones we do see have well in excess of 200,000 miles.  The warranty on the batteries is 8 years of 100,000 miles (10 years or 150,000 miles in CA emission states). 

Now let’s talk about the transmission.  Do you know what is even more rare than a Prius that needs a new battery pack?  One that needs a transmission.  The way they are built and operate is unlike anything else in the industry.  It doesn’t have conventional gears that move in and out of engagement.  It also doesn’t have a belt and pulley system like most other CVT transmissions.  Toyota doesn’t even call it a transmission.  It is a “power split device” which takes power from two different sources and combines them into a single output.  The internal gears are always meshed together so wear and tear are almost non-existent. 

Safety and cool stuff

Toyota has been on the forefront of adopting some new safety technology.  They helped lead a coalition of auto manufacturers to voluntarily put pre-collision systems in every car sold.  The automotive industry has set a date of 2022 to make this happen but Toyota has committed to having it standard in every car and every trim level by the end of calendar year 2017 (with two exceptions of the 86 and 4Runner which will take a little longer). 

Toyota didn’t stop with adding just a pre-collision system.  They added lane keep alert, automatic high-beams and dynamic radar cruise control (DRCC).  The pre-collision and lane keep are nice features and certainly  great safety advances, but in terms of changing how you interact with your car, they don’t do what the other two features do.

Yes, automatic high-beams and DRCC will change the way you drive.  If you live outside the city limits, high beams are a critical safety feature but an underused one.  This is especially true on tight, curvy roads where oncoming cars can show up very suddenly.  This requires the driver to move their hand and attention to dim the lights.  In many cases, that happens so often that people will just stop using high-beams.  The Prius (and everything else Toyota builds by the end of 2017) has a camera that is smart enough to recognize the difference between oncoming lights and reflective road signs.  It also recognizes red tail lights in front of you.  The driver just sets it and leaves it.

The DRCC is just flat out amazing.  It uses millimeter wave radar to monitor the cars in front of you and adjusts your speed accordingly.  That means no adjustment on your part.  If you decide you would be willing to go 72 if you are able, that is what will happen.  If the car in front of you is going 65, that is what you will do.  If he slows down, so will you.  If he speeds up, so will you.  If he gets out of the lane, you will accelerate up to 72 MPH. 

You may say, “sure, but lots of cars do that now.”  Well… kind of.  It is an option on a lot of cars now but it is standard on every single Prius (and Corolla, RAV4, Highlander, Avalon and Land Cruiser).  The Prius is unique though because it will work at a complete stop.  That’s right.  It will work in absolute stop and go traffic.  It is the only Toyota that will work at all speeds.  The others stop working in the low 30’s as will most other cars on the road.  Like I said, it will change how you interact with your car.

Prius Prime

The Prius Prime, like the previous generation Prius Plug-in is one of the most misunderstood and underrated vehicles on the road.  The car has a plug which allows you to charge the car from an outlet (more on this later).  That charge will allow you to drive a certain distance before the gas engine is used at all.  The Prime is still a Prius and still uses a gasoline engine.  The battery can still be charged by the brakes and by the gas engine but it can also be plugged into a wall or charging station.

The first question most people ask is what is the range of the Prime and that is not a good question.  The range could be thousands of miles or it could be 640 miles (this is what the EPA claims the range to be).  The range on pure battery power is up to 25 miles, but the car is not limited to pure battery power.  Unlike a Nissan Leaf or Tesla, the car doesn’t die when the battery runs down.  There is no range anxiety that comes from dealing with an all-electric car.  You can drive across the country without planning how far you can drive before the car needs to sit for an extended period of time to charge the batteries. 

My in-laws own a previous generation Plug-in.  They live 13 miles from work.  The Gen3 Plug-in had a stated range of 12 miles but in the real world, it is more like 8 to 9.  That means when they leave the house, the car runs without the gas engine for roughly ¾ of their drive.  They then plug the car in at work and drive it home the same way.  They routinely get over 1000 miles on 9 gallons of fuel.  What would their “range” be with the new Prime?  I have no idea.  They might need to put fuel stabilizer in it to keep the gas from going bad unless they took a trip to visit their grandkids in Richmond.  The point is, the range depends on how often you can charge it. 

Charging doesn’t require anything fancy either.  Unlike most electric cars, you don’t need a 220 volt dedicated charging station and you certainly don’t need a 440 volt super charger like Tesla needs for a quick charge.  You can plug it into any 110 volt GFI outlet and charge it in 5 and a half hours.  If you find a 220 volt charging station, you’ll have a full charge in just over 2 hours. 

Incentives

There isn’t a lot of mark-up in the Prius so dealers don’t have a lot of “wiggle room” on the actual sale price.  That doesn’t mean there are not good deal though.  As of this writing (December 2016), the 2017 Prius and Prius Prime have $1000 rebates from Toyota.  That means Toyota literally gives you $1000 toward your down payment.

The Prime has something else.  The federal government likes electric cars and are willing to help you own one.  There is a $4500 income tax credit if you purchase a new Prime.  Many states have their own programs as well, but just the $4500 makes the Prime cost less than the equivalent standard Prius.